thefilm.blog’s Oscar Predictions!

Here are a few of my predictions for tomorrow’s Academy Awards across a selection of the main categories. Let me know what you think in the comments! Boy, it’s a good year!

BEST PICTURE

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

It might not be the best film of the nine on a rigorously quality-based analysis, that would be Moonlight, but few films have brought such joy to so many in the past year and La La Land is genuinely exceptional. As whole comprised of its gorgeous soundtrack, fizzing leads, and stunning cinematography, this one ticks all the Academy boxes.

Lion

Moonlight

Manchester by the Sea

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Affleck’s name has been the buzz of Oscar speculation since its Sundance debut last January – yes, before the 2016 Academy Awards had even aired!  In Manchester by the Sea his is the performance of a lifetime, embodying grief and emotional restraint  with exquisite honesty. A win for Affleck would certainly be a worthy one. That said, last year’s hot buzz-name was Cate Blanchett for Carol and we all know how that worked out…

Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)

Ryan Gosling (La La Land)

Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)

Denzel Washington (Fences)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

Ali’s is a role so perfectly realised that he manages to give exactly what the film needs and yet still leaves you wanting more. Patel won the BAFTA, but the British Academy do love to support homegrown talent – this one’s Ali’s to lose.

Dev Patel (Lion)

Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)

Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Isabelle Huppert (Elle)

Ruth Negga (Loving)

Emma Stone (La La Land)

Not my personal pick – that would be the sublime Isabelle Huppert – but Stone’s was an undeniably electric showcase so it’s no surprise that she’s been collecting the gongs and is certainly the favourite now.

Natalie Portman (Jackie)

Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Viola Davis (Fences)

By all rights, Davis should be walking away with the Leading Role Oscar this time around – no, actually, Amy Adams should be taking that one but you catch my drift. As it is, any other result in Supporting would be an injustice.

Naomie Harris (Moonlight)

Nicole Kidman (Lion)

Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

His work in La La Land earns him this twice over. I’d happily see Jenkins take this too though.

Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)

Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Courgette

The Red Turtle

Zootropolis 

Whilst I’ve not seen My Life as a Courgette (I’m picturing a child-friendly Sausage Party, no?) or The Red Turtle, Zootropolis is the strongest allrounder of the trio I have managed to catch. Kubo and Moana would be strong winners, with lovely animation on both parts, but Zootropolis has all that plus a hilarious script, original ideas and terrific voice work to boot.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made In America

13th

As I understand it, O.J.‘s the one to beat here but I’ve yet to see it. Life, Animated is a delight, but 13th would be my pick on the whole.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Lion

Moonlight

If Fences was the most theatrical film since the last NT Live, you’d be hard pressed to find an adaptation more cinematic than Moonlight.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

The best of the bunch: truthful, poignant and devastating. Lonergan’s unlikely to take Best Director but it’d be good to see him recognised here.

20th Century Women

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Jackie

La La Land

Justin Hurwitz’s score is a magical one and it will win here, but he’s up against some mighty fine work from Levi and co. – it’s not quite a wipeout.

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

ORIGINAL SONG

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land

“Can’t Stop The Feeling” from Trolls

“City of Stars” from La La Land

Anyone who wasn’t humming ‘City of Stars’ as they left the cinema is lying because they were.

“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story

“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival

La La Land

Now here’s a strong field! I’d, again, love to see Moonlight do well here but the La La Landslide will be hard to overcome here – and not unjustly.

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

FILM EDITING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

It could be Hacksaw of course, but for the opening number of La La Land alone this is where I see the vote swinging.

Moonlight

VISUAL EFFECTS

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Now, I loved this film so there’s my bias; but surely none can deny its technical skill.

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

11 thoughts on “thefilm.blog’s Oscar Predictions!

  1. Nice list mate. I reckon Hacksaw Ridge is getting some techs so probably Film Editing. Most of the other ones are set too after the Guild Awards but Affleck having not won before may beat out Washington. Also there’s bad press around Affleck at the moment so whoever wins it will have been a tight race I reckon.

    Liked by 1 person

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