It’s time. Oscar weekend is here at last. After months of speculation, there are just hours to go before the world finds out whether The Favourite will live up to its name and if Actress in a Leading Role proves to be as Close as expected.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve given you the full list of nominations and our ‘Runners and Riders‘ analysis. We’ve explored who actually votes for the Oscars and attempted to fathom how the ceremony itself will play out with no host.
Our marvellous #FilmTwitter advocates have had their say and now all that remains is for us to present our annual predictions.
Sadly, we have been unable to catch this year’s short film nominees and so they are absent from our predictions.
Without further ado, then, here is how we expect the 91st Academy Awards playing out…
Recent years have seen a peculiar trend. The Oscars have, in our humble opinion, chosen the right winner of their top gong for two years straight. Whilst our pick for 2019 would be The Favourite, we are more than happy to predict that it’ll be Roma walking away as victor.
Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Bradley Cooper and Christian Bale have come and gone as favourites in the male lead category. In their wake stands Rami Malek and Bohemian Rhapsody’s best chance at an Oscar in 2019.
Actress in a Leading Role
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Of all the categories this year, Actress in a Leading Role is, perhaps, the only to boast five nominees that would all make for totally worthy winners. As it stands, the time feels right for Glenn Close to finally ascend from bridesmaid to bride.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlackkKlansman)
Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Ali won this race two years ago for Moonlight and is very much the favourite to do so again. His winning the BAFTA – in the face of British favourite Richard E. Grant – as good as confirms the fact.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina De Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Whilst Weisz as fared well across this year’s awards season, the Oscar buzz has belonged to King from the start. A win for her would do some justice to Jenkins’ otherwise overlooked triumph.
Spike Lee (BlackkKlansman)
Pavel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Adam McKay (Vice)
If, by some strange twist of fate, Roma does not win Best Picture, it should find consolation in Directing, where Alfonso Cuarón is an assured prediction. And rightly so.
Animated Feature Film
Congratulations are, of course, due in 2019 to Best Picture nominee Black Panther but it’ll be Into the Spider-Verse that will be waving the flag for superhero cinema on the night itself. Appalling product placement aside, this was bold animation for a major studio and delightfully complex.
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
Free Solo told the story of an astonishing story and it did so well. Given that it is nigh on impossible to walk away from a viewing of it without feeling a little shaken to the core, we’ve no issue naming it our expected winner.
Foreign Language Film
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Before the BAFTAs we’d have suggested that – with Roma winning Best Picture – this category would belong to Cold War. However, Alfonso Cuarón’s Mexican entry snagged both BAFTAs and we’d be fools not to expect a repeat here.
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel and Ethan Coen)
BlackkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmott and Spike Lee)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
A Star is Born (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters)
Astonishing as it is that Spike Lee has never won an Oscar for his work on a specific film, we’re inclined to shift our expectations here and lean on BlacKkKlansman here. That said, if Beale Street could win, that’d be super.
The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
Vice (Adam McKay)
Far and away the most ‘original’ film of the list, The Favourite should comfortably win this one. In terms of its dialogic ingenuity, Davis and McNamara’s script is in a field of its own. ‘Did you just look at me?!’
Cold War (Lukasz Zal)
The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)
Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
A Star is Born (Matthew Libatique)
Don’t rule out Roma here, nor Cold War, but this year we see Cinematography going to The Favourite. Ryan’s wide-angled lenses cast his cold palette with so distinctive an aesthetic that a failure to win here would be an upset.
BlackkKlansman (Bary Alexander Brown)
Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman)
The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito)
Vice (Hank Corwin)
A nigh on impossible call this one. We had expected Bohemian Rhapsody to take Editing – based on its success at the Eddies – but then Vice won the BAFTA. The Critics’ Choice award went to First Man and the Satellite went to Roma. Forgive us for being confused. Given that Bohemian Rhapsody hasn’t remarkable editing but has been stalked by negative press we’re going left field. The Favourite won the Eddie for Comedy or Musical and has more Oscar nominations than any other film this year – they like it.
Black Panther (Ludwig Goransson)
BlackkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)
Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)
Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)
A Star is Born strikes as a peculiar absence here. While Justin Hurwitz should be walking this for his work on First Man, the string of critic awards Nicholas Britell has picked up from circles across the States should see him home.
‘All the Stars’ (Black Panther)
‘I’ll Fight’ (RBG)
‘The Place Where Lost Things Go’ (Mary Poppins Returns)
‘Shallow’ (A Star is Born)
‘When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings’ (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
A clear-cut winner we’d say. The Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper performed number won two Grammys last week and has already scooped the Satellite, Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and Hollywood Music in Media Awards.
Black Panther (Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart)
The Favourite (Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton)
First Man (Nathan Crowly and Kathy Lucas)
Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre and Gordon Sim)
Roma (Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez)
Another category in which Yorgos Lanthimos’ film is our favourite. Black Panther could surprise here but Crombie and Felton’s sterling work has already impressed critic circles across America and nabbed a BAFTA.
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)
Black Panther (Ruth Carter)
The Favourite (Sandy Powell)
Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)
Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)
2019 won’t mark the first Oscar win for Sandy Powell and not the last either. Here Powell has two nominations but it’ll be her work on The Favourite that sees her across the line.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Border (Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer)
Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks)
Vice (Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney)
To our mind, Mary Queen of Scots was robbed at the BAFTAs when it comes to hair and make-up. This is a film that is ninety-per-cent hair and make-up and more than deserves recognition for the fact. Just look at the barnet on Saoirse Ronan and tell us we’re wrong.
Avengers: Infinity War (Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick)
Christopher Robin (Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould)
First Man (Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm)
Ready Player One (Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and DAvid Shirk)
Solo: A Star Wars Story (Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy)
With no Black Panther to rival it, Infinity War should have Visual Effects nailed. Disney sure spent enough on the film’s effects to warrant it.
Black Panther (Benjamin A Burtt and Steve Boeddeker)
Bohemian Rhapsody (John Warhurst and Nia Hartstone)
First Man (Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan)
A Quiet Place (Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahi)
Roma (Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay)
More often than not, the two Sound Oscars go to the same film. Last year, Dunkirk swept the board. This year looks set to buck that trend, primarily because Sound Editing as never yet been awarded to a musical. On reflection, this one could go any way but we’d like to see A Quiet Place take the nod. First Man is more likely.
Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin)
Bohemian Rhapsody (Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali)
First Man (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis)
Roma (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio Garcia)
A Star Is Born (Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow)
Whereas Sound Editing refers to the sound effects added to a film, Sound Mixing is the overall soundscape that is achieved when everything is brought together. Musicals have a better track record here and Bohemian Rhapsody comes to the party with awards already from the Motion Picture Sound Editors’ Golden Reel Awards and the Cinema Audio Society Awards.
So, there you have it! That’s what we think. Let us know your thoughts in the comments and join us on The Film Blog at 1am tomorrow night for our annual Oscar Live Blog. Bring blankets.